An Israeli security report sheds light on the post-President Mahmoud Abbas period and the possible struggle over his post, pointing out that the president’s personality is controversial, but he has given Israel strategic stability over many years.
"Abbas constitutes a gain for Israel and he was able to give Israel strategic stability in the West Bank, despite the revolutions that swept the Arab world," the report, which was published by the Israeli Institute for National Security Studies (Israel), stated.
Abbas was also able to curtail the Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) in the West Bank, and was interested in continuing close relations with Israel.
But on the other hand, the report stated that Abbas pursued a strict political line, and wasted many political opportunities, which most notably is the offer made in the Annapolis conversations, which contributed to the growth of the Palestinian leadership.
“The president managed an authority mired in corruption that violated human rights,” the report illustrated.
In addition, "In exchange for stability and prosperity in the West Bank, his term of office was represented by deep and continuous crises."
The report indicates that the issue of Abbas’s replacement is a concern of Israeli security because it will be reflected in the region and the strategic condition of Israel.
Moreover,"the situation is still foggy for the post Abbas period in the absence of any mechanism for choosing a replacement president or a smooth way to transfer the reins of affairs"
Post-Abbas phase scenarios
The report shows that there are several central scenarios in the event of Abbas’s absence from the scene, including the unity of the Palestinian leadership in order to stabilize the Palestinian National Authority, at least for a transitional period, until choosing a popular leader.
While the second option is the deterioration of matters into a violent conflict between the conflicting parties within Fatah, which may turn into violent confrontations that lead to destabilization of the authority by creating overwhelming chaos in the West Bank controlled by local leaders or armed militias.
The third option,after Abbas’s absence, is the Palestinian leadership pursue to internal reconciliation, which will be accompanied by holding elections and integration Hamas into the Palestinian leadership and official institutions.
Israeli dealt with the event
However, the report stresses that the day that will follow Abbas will not necessarily be bad for Israel, or different from his era, and Israel must ensure that there is a rational balance point between anticipating what will happen on the one hand, and beware of interfering in the internal Palestinian arena, and not installing a new president who is loyal to Israel, especially since it tasted such a harsh situation in Lebanon after its support of Bashir Gemayel.
Meanwhile, Israel should not take neutral position as there are personalities that threaten its security or controlling an extremist party in the West Bank, such as Hamas.
The report highlights the need to coordinate its planned steps with the main power centers in the region, led by Egypt, Jordan and the Gulf states, by trying to recruit its political and economic strengths to bring about stability in the Palestinian arena, after the president's departure.
In this context, Israel should not engage in the adventure of pushing for a candidate who is supported by regional powers.
The report concluded by recommending the necessity need for the next Palestinian president to have a close relationship with Israel in order to be able to rule for long years and to survive as well, because the opposite means that he will enjoy his position for a short term."
“Israel aspires to assume a young figure, as the next president, who rejects the slogans of the past about the Palestinian dream of returning to the 48 regions,” The report stated.
Source : Safa